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                 據英國廣播公司報道,英國首相約翰遜8月28日表示,他已獲得女王伊麗莎白二世批準,使議會復會日期拖后至10月14日。在10月31日英國“脫歐”最后期限逼近之際,約翰遜的舉動引發國內民眾和反對黨的強烈抗議。

            反對派時間不多

            在約翰遜提出休閉議會的當天,英國倫敦、曼徹斯特、愛丁堡等多個城市爆發了規模不等的示威游行。人們在憤怒中走上街頭,并高呼“拯救民主,停止政變”的口號。

            “今天是英國歷史上黑暗的一天。”蘇格蘭首席部長斯特金表示。英國工黨領袖科爾賓認為,這是對民主的凌辱和威脅。工黨副黨魁沃特森也在社交媒體上批評:“這對我們的民主而言,是完全的丑聞。”

            今年英國議會的夏休期從7月25日開始,至9月2日結束。休會期間,議會無法進行議事或者表決,沒有被議會通過的法案將會被暫時擱置。8月27日,英國主要反對黨領導人曾發表共同聲明,試圖在9月3日開始的議會新會期內發起行動,阻止約翰遜內閣的“無協議脫歐”計劃。

            若議會在9月9日至10月14日再次休會,意味著留給反對派議員在“脫歐”問題上行使權力的時間縮短至一周。法新社認為,約翰遜有意擠壓反對“無協議脫歐”陣營的時間,讓他們無力阻止英國10月31日如期“脫歐”。

            “硬脫歐”障礙掃清

            據路透社報道,英國前首相梅杰8月29日表示,要通過法律手段阻止約翰遜的決定。反“脫歐”領袖、商人米勒也已向法院申請對政府讓議會休會的決定進行緊急司法審查。同日,有議員和律師向蘇格蘭、北愛爾蘭法院申請頒布“關閉議會違法”的緊急法令。

            不過,英國廣播公司報道認為,約翰遜作為首相,有權要求女王關閉議會。智庫專家懷特表示,進行法律挑戰有相當難度,只能從“脫歐”時間點和動機上嘗試推翻頒令。

            《金融時報》社論則呼吁反對“無協議脫歐”的議員拋開分歧,通過對政府的不信任投票,由工黨領袖科爾賓領導看守政府捍衛現行體制。科爾賓本人也在英國《獨立報》上發文稱,將用盡一切辦法阻止“硬脫歐”。

            西班牙《先鋒報》指出,相比保守黨占據多數的“脫歐派”,留歐人士分布在各個政黨中,阻礙了他們的政治團結,令他們難以實現阻止“脫歐”的目標。

            “有了特蕾莎·梅政府的前車之鑒,約翰遜想要‘快刀斬亂麻’,英國議會阻止‘無協議脫歐’的可能性越來越小。”中國國際問題研究院歐洲研究所所長崔洪建分析,休閉議會一方面大幅削減議會對政府的掣肘,另一方面也向歐盟顯示“硬脫歐”的決心。

            “硬著陸”前景難料

            8月29日,約翰遜表示,英國談判代表下月將與歐盟官員舉行一周兩次的會談,以設法修改脫歐協議,并要求取消關于北愛爾蘭邊界問題的保障條款。但無論能否達成一份過渡協議,英國都將于10月31日脫離歐盟。

            據《每日電訊報》報道,歐盟立場可能已經出現軟化,法國總統馬克龍準備延長10月31日的脫歐期限。德國外交部長海科·馬斯說,希望英國盡快提出可行的替代方案,同時也做好了對英國“無協議脫歐”的準備。

            經濟學家克努特表示,“無協議脫歐”會明顯拖累英國經濟,英鎊進一步貶值將推高通脹。英國工業聯合會7月底發布報告認為,即使采取應急預案,英歐27個關鍵經濟領域中的24個也將在“無協議脫歐”后受到擾亂。

            作為英國最大的貿易伙伴,“無協議脫歐”后,歐盟經濟將持續動蕩。德國經濟研究所數據顯示,受沖擊最大的將是愛爾蘭,德國、法國等亦將受到不小影響。德國工業聯合會主席肯普夫8月25日警告稱,如果10月底出現無協議的“硬脫歐”,德國今年經濟增速或將降至零。

            “約翰遜把‘硬脫歐’作為一個必須完成的目標,不去計算英國的損失。”崔洪建指出,如果“硬脫歐”發生,無論是英國政治、經濟還是外交都將面臨“硬著陸”。英國國內民意的分裂、貿易成本的上升以及英國各地區的獨立等問題,將對英國政府構成嚴峻的考驗。

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